According to a new report from Bitwise, Bitcoin’s historical reputation for extreme volatility is shifting. In 2025, the digital asset’s price movements were notably more stable than those of the tech giant Nvidia (NVDA). Bitwise suggests this trend will persist into 2026 as Bitcoin continues to “de-risk” due to a maturing and diversifying investor base.
The Volatility Gap: BTC vs. NVDA
The data from 2025 highlights a significant contrast between the two assets:
- Bitcoin: Experienced a 68% price swing, moving from a yearly low of $75,000 in April to a record high of $126,000 in early October.
- Nvidia: Showed much higher volatility with a 120% price swing, fluctuating from a low of $94 in April to a high of $207 in late October.
While Nvidia has outperformed Bitcoin this year with a 27% year-to-date gain, Bitcoin has seen an 8% decline. This divergence suggests that crypto markets are increasingly decoupling from traditional tech stocks.
Predictions for 2026: Breaking the Cycle
Bitwise is betting on a bullish 2026, predicting that Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs and potentially break its traditional “four-year cycle.” The firm argues that structural forces like the halving and leverage-driven “boom and bust” periods now have a weaker impact than in previous years.
“Bitcoin’s volatility has steadily declined over the past ten years… signaling a ‘derisking’ of the asset as institutional investment products bring in a more diverse investor base.” — Bitwise
Institutional Adoption and Regulation
The firm identifies several key drivers for growth in the coming year:
- Wall Street Entry: Major institutions such as Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch are expected to deepen their involvement in the crypto space.
- ETF Growth: Allocations to spot crypto ETFs are predicted to rise steadily.
- Regulatory Support: A continued shift toward pro-crypto regulations will likely accelerate corporate adoption.
- Equity Performance: Bitwise forecasts that crypto equities will outperform broader tech equities in 2026.
