As Bitcoin hovers around the $87,000 mark, it sits precariously close to the average entry price for spot ETF buyers, which currently stands at $86,600. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, identifies this specific zone as a critical “psychological frontier” for the market.
The Stalemate of Breakeven
According to Moreno, investors are no longer focused on profit-taking; instead, they are grappling with a strategic choice: endure a potential drawdown or exit the market at breakeven. The realized price serves as the primary gauge for market sentiment.
- Stability: Staying above this line maintains investor confidence.
- Risk: Dipping below $86,600 erases the “profit buffer,” which could trigger a wave of panic redemptions and accelerated fund outflows.
The First Major Stress Test
The sector is currently navigating its most significant challenge since the launch of these instruments. Moreno highlighted several key metrics regarding capital movement:
- Historical Peak: Cumulative inflows hit a record $72.6 billion on October 10, 2025.
- Recent Trends: Since that peak, the market has seen a net outflow of approximately $6.1 billion.
- Current Status: Total inflows now sit at $66.5 billion, reflecting an 8.4% decline from the highs.
Despite this cooling period, the realized price has remained remarkably steady. This suggests that the market has successfully absorbed selling pressure from short-term speculators and late-cycle entrants.
Outlook
The current market behavior is a test of resilience. If Bitcoin holds its ground above the average purchase cost, it will likely encourage long-term holding. However, a sustained break below this level could shift the prevailing investor mindset from passive accumulation to aggressive liquidation.
