BTC briefly pushed past $87,000 on Friday after the U.S. economy added only 29,000 jobs in September, well short of the 90,000 economists had expected, while unemployment rose to 4.2%.
The report was soft across the board. August’s initial 162,000 gain was revised down to 133,000, July’s 21,000 was revised to a loss of 10,000, and average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% against a 0.3% forecast, with annual wage growth at 3%. It marks the third-weakest jobs print of 2026.
Markets treated the miss as relief. Bitcoin climbed from roughly $86,450 to near $87,230 within minutes, gold jumped to $4,227 an ounce, and short sellers lost about $27.53 million to liquidations in the following hour. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped seven basis points to 5.17%, and Nasdaq futures gained 1.2%. Positioning was already leaning bullish into the release: bitcoin open interest rose by $2.3 billion as traders paid up for upside exposure, and BTC dominance is approaching 60%, according to CoinDesk.
The data reshapes the Fed outlook ahead of the October 28 meeting. Odds of a pause climbed to 85% on prediction markets, a sharp reversal from early September, when a hotter-than-expected payrolls report lifted hike odds that later turned into an actual increase.
The technical picture remains tight. QCP’s analysis shows support at $82,500 has held three times in the past week, with resistance at $87,400 — the September high and the gateway to $90,000, a level where traders have already sold significant October upside via options. The rally stalled at $87,250, with price hovering near $87,000 afterward.
A clean break above the September high would test whether the macro tailwind can outweigh options-market supply near $90,000. Treasury yields remain the variable to watch heading into the FOMC decision.
