Israeli security forces have apprehended a military reservist and a civilian suspected of leveraging classified intelligence to profit from geopolitical wagers. The pair allegedly placed bets on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, specifically targeting outcomes related to Israeli military strikes against Iran.
Classified Intel as a Betting Edge
The arrests were the result of a coordinated operation involving the Israel Defense Ministry, the Shin Bet (internal security service), and the national police. According to official statements, the reservist—who was reportedly an employee of the Shin Bet—accessed sensitive information to inform high-stakes wagers on the timing and nature of military actions.
Legal and Security Implications:
- Charges: The state prosecutor is seeking indictments for bribery, obstruction of justice, and security-related offenses.
- The “Ricosuave666” Connection: While not officially confirmed, investigators are looking into links to the account “ricosuave666,” which reportedly earned over $152,300 last June by correctly predicting the window for Israeli strikes on Iran.
- Profits: One specific wager on military action occurring by a certain Friday allegedly netted a payout of more than $128,700.
Prediction Markets: A New Security Frontier
The case has intensified the global debate over the regulation of prediction markets. Israeli officials emphasized that using state secrets for financial gain on such platforms creates a “genuine security risk” for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), potentially telegraphing military intentions to adversaries.
While the defense attorney for the reservist has called the indictment “flawed” and noted that the specific charge of “harming national security” was dropped, the incident highlights a growing trend of insider trading within the crypto-betting ecosystem. Earlier this year, a similar scandal emerged when a user profited $400,000 on a bet regarding the ousting of Nicolás Maduro, just hours before his capture.
