Bitcoin’s recent attempt to cement its position above $97,000 has lost momentum, slipping back to the $95,500 range. Despite a sharp three-day rally that liquidating $465 million in short positions, the anticipated “retail FOMO” has failed to materialize. Instead, the market is witnessing a divergence between cautious individual traders and aggressive institutional buyers.
The Missing Retail Spark
Current metrics suggest that the “average investor” is currently looking elsewhere. Google Trends data for the term “crypto” has hit a stagnant score of 27—perilously close to its yearly low. Several factors explain this lack of enthusiasm:
- Stagnant Funding Rates: The perpetual futures funding rate sits at a mere 4%, well below the 8–12% range typical of a healthy bull market. This indicates a lack of leverage and speculative appetite among retail participants.
- Asset Competition: While Bitcoin remains 25% below its peak of $126,219, other assets are stealing the spotlight. The Nasdaq is hovering near record highs following strong earnings from tech leaders like TSMC, and silver has outperformed with a 28% gain in just two weeks.
Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Headwinds
Trader sentiment is also being weighed down by a complex political landscape in early 2026. Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have surfaced following a Justice Department inquiry into the Fed’s renovation costs—a move some see as political pressure from the Trump administration. With Chair Jerome Powell’s term ending in April, the market is bracing for potential shifts in monetary policy.
Furthermore, geopolitical tensions are high. President Trump’s recent warnings to Iran regarding oil flow chokepoints, combined with the volatility following the U.S. military operation in Venezuela earlier this month, have made investors wary of “risk-on” assets. Bitcoin has yet to prove itself as a stable haven during such intense global friction.
The Institutional Silver Lining
Despite the retail lull, the floor for Bitcoin is being reinforced by “big money.” Spot Bitcoin ETFs have now surpassed $120 billion in assets, and public corporations—following the “Saylor Playbook”—have collectively moved over $105 billion into Bitcoin treasuries. This massive institutional absorption is currently the primary force keeping the $100,000 target within reach, even as smaller traders remain on the sidelines.
