Toncoin (TON) has shown signs of recovery, reaching towards $6 after defending support at $5. This recent bullish momentum, seen in tandem with top altcoins like Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Ripple (XRP), follows a significant sell-off over the weekend and on Monday. Traders are optimistic about a sustainable recovery and potential new all-time highs above $10, although the market remains uncertain.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
– Support at $5: Blockchain data from IntoTheBlock indicates that 475 addresses purchased about 129,000 TON between $5 and $5.17, establishing a robust support level at $5.
– Resistance at $6.25: The IOMAP (In/Out of the Money Around Price) model suggests strong resistance at $6.25, where approximately 1,060 addresses bought 1.64 million TON. These holders may sell at breakeven, increasing selling pressure and limiting the uptrend.
Current Market Sentiment and Activity
– Bullish Momentum: The recent TON price recovery is driven by traders buying dips above the $5 support, indicating a potential climb above $6 during the American trading session.
– Stagnant Network Activity: New and active addresses have decreased in the last 30 days, with a drop from 398 to 194 in new addresses and from 733 to 532 in active addresses. This stagnation could undermine the bullish momentum required for a sustained uptrend.
Technical Indicators
– 200-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA): TON has recovered to sit above the 200-day EMA at $5.16, which is a positive technical signal.
– Money Flow Index (MFI): The MFI has moved into the neutral region, suggesting increased trader interest and potential bullish momentum.
– Death Cross Pattern: A death cross pattern formed on July 25 when the 20-day EMA crossed below the 50-day EMA, indicating a possible bearish trend if the price fails to maintain support levels.
Potential Scenarios
Bullish Scenario: If Toncoin retests and rebounds from the 200-day EMA support and breaks the $6 to $6.25 resistance, it could target higher levels at $8 and potentially a new all-time high at $10.
Bearish Scenario: Failure to break the $6 barrier could result in traders selling for short-term profits, potentially driving the price back to the $5 support. If the bearish momentum continues, especially with the influence of the death cross, TON might decline further, testing the $3.5 to $4 range.
Conclusion
Toncoin is at a critical juncture, with significant support at $5 and strong resistance at $6.25. While technical indicators show some bullish signals, stagnant network activity and market uncertainty pose challenges. Traders should watch key levels and be prepared for both potential upward and downward movements. A decisive break above $6.25 could trigger a rally towards $10, while failure to do so may lead to a retest of lower support levels.
