As the 2024 US Presidential election draws near, Polymarket, the decentralized prediction market, is experiencing a surge in activity. This platform, which allows users to place bets on various outcomes, reflects public sentiment about the election’s developments. The market titled “Biden drops out of presidential race?” showed a significant increase in the odds of President Biden withdrawing from the race. On Wednesday, the odds were at 80%, up from 55% earlier in the day and substantially higher than the previous week’s 20%.
This shift in betting odds follows a presidential debate and a New York Times article highlighting concerns about Biden’s age and performance. The article, titled “Biden Tells Allies He Knows He Has Only Days to Salvage Candidacy,” suggested that Biden himself is aware of the challenges facing his campaign, according to conversations with allies.
The White House has refuted the claims in the article, labeling them as false. Meanwhile, the market on Biden’s decision has attracted over $10 million in bets.
In other betting markets on Polymarket, the trading volume for June exceeded $100 million, underscoring the heightened interest in the election. Another market, “Presidential Election Winner 2024,” shows Kamala Harris with a 16% chance of winning, while Biden’s odds have fallen to 13%. Trump is currently leading with 62% odds. This intense betting activity reflects the volatile and highly scrutinized nature of the current political landscape.
