{"id":428,"date":"2026-06-18T14:50:38","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T14:50:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/1stblock.info\/?p=428"},"modified":"2026-06-18T14:50:39","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T14:50:39","slug":"warshs-fed-debut-sends-crypto-lower-as-rate-cut-narrative-dies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/1stblock.info\/?p=428","title":{"rendered":"Warsh&#8217;s Fed Debut Sends Crypto Lower as Rate-Cut Narrative Dies"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>BTC<\/strong> fell to around <strong>$64,150<\/strong>, down <strong>2.2%<\/strong> over 24 hours, after the Federal Reserve held rates at <strong>3.50%\u20133.75%<\/strong> in Kevin Warsh&#8217;s first FOMC meeting as chair but delivered a sharply hawkish set of economic projections, <em>according to The Block and Unchained<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The vote to hold was 12-0 and largely priced in. What markets weren&#8217;t positioned for was the scale of the shift in the dot plot: nine of 18 FOMC members now pencil in at least one rate hike before year-end, with the median 2026 rate forecast moving to <strong>3.8%<\/strong>, up from <strong>3.4%<\/strong> in March. The Fed&#8217;s PCE inflation projection was raised to <strong>3.6%<\/strong>, a full <strong>90 basis points<\/strong> above its March estimate, citing energy-driven supply shocks. Language indicating any bias toward future cuts was removed entirely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>ETH<\/strong> dropped <strong>3.6%<\/strong>, while <strong>XRP<\/strong> and <strong>SOL<\/strong> each slid around <strong>3%<\/strong>. The GMCI 30 large-cap index fell roughly <strong>2.6%<\/strong>, extending its year-to-date decline to nearly <strong>36%<\/strong>. Traditional haven assets offered no shelter \u2014 gold fell <strong>2.2%<\/strong> and silver shed <strong>4%<\/strong>. The Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index hit <strong>22<\/strong>, deep in Extreme Fear territory. <em>Per CME FedWatch<\/em>, markets closed Warsh&#8217;s press conference pricing a <strong>60.7%<\/strong> probability of an October hike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Warsh&#8217;s communication style added its own layer of uncertainty. His policy statement was notably shorter than anything Powell issued and stripped out the forward-guidance language markets had grown dependent on over the past decade. Warsh framed the shift as presenting &#8220;the facts&#8221; rather than steering expectations \u2014 a deliberate structural break. <em>Analysts at 21Shares<\/em> described the session as &#8220;the first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh,&#8221; noting that &#8220;the real signal came from the updated projections&#8221; rather than the hold itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One structural counter-signal: <em>K33 Research<\/em> reported Wednesday that a record <strong>79%<\/strong> of <strong>BTC<\/strong>&#8216;s circulating supply is now held by long-term holders \u2014 an all-time high. Reactivation of coins aged two years or more has hit its lowest level since 2012, with only <strong>218,421 BTC<\/strong> reactivated through June 6. For now, the macro headwind is the dominant price driver. With US Treasuries yielding above <strong>4%<\/strong> and the rate-cut thesis for 2026 effectively closed, the bid for risk assets faces a materially tighter institutional backdrop heading into the second half of the year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>BTC fell to around $64,150, down 2.2% over 24 hours, after the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%\u20133.75%<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":346,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-428","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market"],"brizy_media":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/1stblock.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/428","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/1stblock.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/1stblock.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1stblock.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1stblock.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=428"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/1stblock.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/428\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":429,"href":"https:\/\/1stblock.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/428\/revisions\/429"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1stblock.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/346"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/1stblock.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=428"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1stblock.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=428"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1stblock.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=428"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}