BTC fell to around $64,150, down 2.2% over 24 hours, after the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%–3.75% in Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as chair but delivered a sharply hawkish set of economic projections, according to The Block and Unchained.
The vote to hold was 12-0 and largely priced in. What markets weren’t positioned for was the scale of the shift in the dot plot: nine of 18 FOMC members now pencil in at least one rate hike before year-end, with the median 2026 rate forecast moving to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March. The Fed’s PCE inflation projection was raised to 3.6%, a full 90 basis points above its March estimate, citing energy-driven supply shocks. Language indicating any bias toward future cuts was removed entirely.
ETH dropped 3.6%, while XRP and SOL each slid around 3%. The GMCI 30 large-cap index fell roughly 2.6%, extending its year-to-date decline to nearly 36%. Traditional haven assets offered no shelter — gold fell 2.2% and silver shed 4%. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit 22, deep in Extreme Fear territory. Per CME FedWatch, markets closed Warsh’s press conference pricing a 60.7% probability of an October hike.
Warsh’s communication style added its own layer of uncertainty. His policy statement was notably shorter than anything Powell issued and stripped out the forward-guidance language markets had grown dependent on over the past decade. Warsh framed the shift as presenting “the facts” rather than steering expectations — a deliberate structural break. Analysts at 21Shares described the session as “the first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh,” noting that “the real signal came from the updated projections” rather than the hold itself.
One structural counter-signal: K33 Research reported Wednesday that a record 79% of BTC‘s circulating supply is now held by long-term holders — an all-time high. Reactivation of coins aged two years or more has hit its lowest level since 2012, with only 218,421 BTC reactivated through June 6. For now, the macro headwind is the dominant price driver. With US Treasuries yielding above 4% and the rate-cut thesis for 2026 effectively closed, the bid for risk assets faces a materially tighter institutional backdrop heading into the second half of the year.
